Why does my stocktake show a variance every single month?

You run the stocktake. The numbers don't match. There's a gap between what the stock *should* be and what's actually on the shelf — and there it is again, the same as last month, and the month before that.

Most operators have learned to live with it. A bit of variance is "normal." It gets written off as shrinkage, wastage, the cost of running a busy bar.

It isn't normal. And more importantly, it isn't random. A variance that turns up every single month is telling you something specific — and once you know how to read it, it's fixable.

First — what a stock variance actually is

Your *theoretical* stock — sometimes called book stock — is what you should have left: opening stock, plus everything delivered, minus everything sold. Your *actual* stock is what you physically count.

The variance is the difference between the two — and if you want the exact formula spelled out, it's set out in the [F&B profitability FAQ](https://www.claritybydh.com/f-b-profitability-faqs-bar-restaurant-hotel-margin-advice-clarity-by-david-holden).

A small gap is expected. A consistent, repeating gap is not. It means stock — and the cash tied up in it — is leaving your business through a route you haven't identified yet.

A variance every month isn't random — and that's the good news

Here's the part most operators miss.

If your variance jumped around — up one month, down the next, a different number every time — that would point to counting error or bad timing. Messy, but essentially noise.

A variance that's roughly the *same size every month* is the opposite. It's consistent. And consistent means systematic — something in how your site runs is leaking in the same way, on repeat.

That's not bad news. It's the best news you could get. A systematic problem has a findable cause and a permanent fix.

The seven places a monthly variance actually comes from

1. Counting and process errors. Different people counting in different ways. Counts taken at different points relative to deliveries. Cases counted as units. Areas missed entirely.

2. EPOS and recipe errors. Portion sizes and recipes programmed into the till that don't match what actually goes in the glass or on the plate. If the system thinks a measure is 25ml and your team pours 35ml, the variance is built in before you've sold a thing.

3. Delivery discrepancies. Short deliveries that were never checked against the invoice Price increases that slipped through unnoticed. Credits for missing or substandard stock that were never claimed.

4. Over-pouring and over-portioning. Free-poured spirits, a heavy hand on the wine, a kitchen plating by eye instead of by weight.

5. Unrecorded waste. Breakages, spillage, line cleaning, staff drinks, comps and dumps with none of it logged.

6. Transfers not recorded. Stock moved between bars, sites or the kitchen with no paperwork behind it.

7. Theft. The cause everyone assumes first — and usually the smallest of the seven. Worth ruling out. Rarely the real answer.

What a "small" variance is actually worth

Take a bar turning over £20,000 a week in wet sales. Say the stocktake shows a 2% liquor variance — the kind of number plenty of operators wave through as acceptable.

- 2% of £20,000 is **£400 a week.**

- That's **£1,733 a month.**

- **£20,800 a year.**

Gone. Not to one dramatic cause — to a 35ml pour here, an unclaimed credit there, a wastage log nobody fills in. Small, repeating, invisible.

The P&L shows you the result. It never shows you the route.

Why measuring it won't fix it

This is the trap.

A stocktake *measures* the variance. It tells you the gap exists and how big it is. It does not tell you why — and it certainly doesn't close it.

Plenty of sites stocktake religiously and carry the exact same variance year after year. Measuring the gap and closing the gap are two different jobs. The count is the smoke alarm. It is not the fire engine.

What to do about it

- Standardise the count first. Same method, same time, same point in the delivery cycle. Rule out the count itself before you investigate anything else.

- Check your EPOS portion and recipe data against reality — not what the spec says, what your team actually does.

- Audit one delivery cycle end to end. Invoice against what physically arrived, and check whether credits are being claimed at all.

- Put a real wastage process in place and see how much "variance" was simply never written down.

- Track variance by category — spirits, wine, draught, food — separately. A single blended number hides exactly where the leak is.

If the variance survives all of that, you have a genuine, isolated problem worth investigating properly. And now you know where to look.

Get to the bottom of it

This is the work I do.

I find where the loss is, what it's costing you, and how to close the gap for good — not another report telling you a number you already knew.

If your stocktake shows the same variance every month and you can't pin down why, that's exactly the conversation to have. [Book a Profit Review](https://www.claritybydh.com/book-a-profit-review-contact-clarity).

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Common questions about stock variance

What is an acceptable stock variance in hospitality?

There's no universal figure — it depends on the site and how it's run. But the more useful question isn't "what's acceptable", it's "is it consistent". A small variance that moves around is usually noise. A variance that repeats at the same level every month is systematic, and worth recovering however small the percentage looks.

Is a recurring stock variance always theft?

Rarely. Theft is one of seven common causes and usually the smallest. Process gaps, EPOS data, delivery checks, pouring and unrecorded waste account for far more in most sites.

Why does my variance change every month?

A variance that jumps around tends to point to counting inconsistency or timing — counts taken at different points in the delivery cycle, or different people counting different ways. Standardising the count itself usually settles it.

Will a more expensive stocktaking service fix it?

No. Any stocktake measures the variance. Closing it is a separate piece of work — identifying the operational cause and changing the process that creates it.

More answers on bar, restaurant and hotel margins are on the F&B profitability FAQ page.

Related reading

Case Study: turning a £10k/month bar loss into consistent profit