Guide
Understanding Your Stocktake Report: What the Numbers Are Telling You
By David Holden · Stock Auditing since 1992 – Allied Domecq, Hilton, Marco Pierre White, RedCat Hospitality Ltd.
A 2% liquor variance on a bar taking £20,000 a week is £20,800 a year. Plenty of operators wave that through as acceptable.
Lots of operators get a stocktake report every month and are told a number. Few are ever shown how that number is built, what normal looks like, or what to do when it isn’t. This guide covers all three, and brings together everything I’ve written on it.
PART ONE - HOW THE RESULT IS WORKED OUT
What do surplus and deficiency mean on a stocktake?
A surplus means more money came through the till than the stock used should have produced. A deficiency means less did. Every product is worked out the same way, they all contribute to the overall figure.
Surplus: an 88-pint keg of Guinness sells 95 pints at £6.50. The stock is looking for £572.00; the till took £617.50. That’s a £45.50 surplus.
Deficiency: 72 bottles used at £6.00, but only 64 went through the till. The stock is looking for £432.00; the till took £384.00. That’s a £48.00 deficiency.
Do that for every line in stock, take off any agreed allowances – tapping and venting, for example – and you have the overall result.
PART TWO - RUBBISH IN, RUBBISH OUT
Why can a stocktake result be wrong?
Because the report can only be as good as what goes into it. The count, the till and the paperwork all have to be right.
Cross-keying is the big one: a lager rung in as a different lager, one spirit as another. It costs nothing at the time, but one product shows a surplus that isn’t real and another shows a matching loss that isn’t real either. Every product needs its own till button, so NO “open drinks” key.
Missed stock does the same. A store room, an overflow fridge, stock kept somewhere unusual - If the stocktaker doesn’t count it the result is skewed.
Missing paperwork: transfers to the kitchen or other sites, staff drinks, comps, breakages and promotions all have to be recorded. Without them, the report shows a variance but can’t tell you why.
Read the small print. Most stocktake reports say the result depends on the information supplied.
That says it all.
PART THREE - WHAT NORMAL LOOKS LIKE
What result should each type of product show?
There’s no single normal figure.
Each category has its own, and each one has a physical reason behind it.
Yield % = quantity sold through the till ÷ quantity used from stock × 100.
A keg over 100% isn’t fiddling: industry guidance accepts a pint with a head as at least 95% liquid, so a well-poured keg stretches further. Post-mix should show a surplus because ice in the glass takes up room the drink would otherwise fill.
PART FOUR - IS IT A PROBLEM?
What is an acceptable stock variance?
In a well-controlled bar, a deficiency usually sits between 1% and 3% of sales. But the trend matters more than any single result.
Look at the percentage, not just the pounds. A £500 deficiency on a bar taking £5,000 a week is a serious control failure. On a bar taking £30,000 a week it’s noise.
Then look at whether it repeats. A variance that jumps around, up one month, down the next, usually points to counting errors or the timing of the count. A variance that’s the same size every month is systematic: something in how the site runs is leaking the same way, on repeat. That’s actually good news, because a systematic problem has a cause you can find.
Watch for bouncebacks. Undercount a bottle this month and it shows as a loss; count it right next month and it shows as a surplus. Nothing changed, it’s one mistake showing up twice.
A major variance is a blue light. It’s telling you to stop and look properly, not file the report and move on. But recount it first. That number is about to drive everything that happens next.
PART FIVE - WHERE A VARIANCE COMES FROM
What causes a stock deficiency?
Something is being lost, missed or taken. In practice, a repeating variance almost always comes from one of seven places.
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Counting errors - Different people, different methods, areas missed.
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Till and recipe errors - The till thinks a measure is 25ml, the bar pours 35ml.
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Delivery problems - Short deliveries, unclaimed credits, price rises nobody spotted.
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Over-pouring and over-portioning - Free-poured spirits, plating by eye.
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Wastage not recorded - Breakages, spillage, line cleaning, staff drinks.
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Transfers not recorded - Stock moved between bars, sites or the kitchen.
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Theft - The one everyone assumes first, and usually the smallest of the seven.
What’s missing points you to where to look. Whole kegs, bottles or cases: check deliveries first, stock paid for that never arrived. A single spirit bottle: check the wastage log for a breakage. That only works if people aren’t punished for owning up to a dropped bottle, come down hard and they’ll just hide the next one.
PART SIX - WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT
How do you fix a variance that keeps coming back?
Rule out the count first, then work through the causes one at a time. A stocktake measures the gap, it doesn’t close it.
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Recount any big variance before drawing conclusions.
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Count the same way, at the same time, at the same point in the delivery cycle.
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Check till recipes and measures against what the bar actually does.
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Check one full delivery cycle – invoice against what physically arrived, and whether credits are claimed.
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Put a real wastage process in place.
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Track spirits, wine, draught and food separately – one blended number hides the leak.
The count is the smoke alarm, not the fire engine. Plenty of sites stocktake religiously, don't react and carry the same variance year after year.
From losing £10,000 a month to consistent profit
A busy restaurant bar had shown the same £10,000-a-month deficiency for six months, same number, same argument, no change. Three months after the owner took control and put the right controls in, it was making consistent profit.
PART SEVEN
Common questions
What does a stocktaker need from me?
EPOS sales reports, invoices and delivery notes, selling prices, recipe and cocktail specs, and wastage records - Plus every transfer, comp, breakage and promotion in the period.
Why do I have a surplus on some lines?
On Guinness, keg and post-mix it can be normal. Anywhere else check for cross-keying, where a surplus on one line often has a matching loss on another.
What is a bounceback?
A counting mistake that shows as a loss one period and a surplus the next. One error, showing up twice.
Is a stock deficiency always theft?
No. Theft is usually the smallest cause. Counting, till set-up, deliveries, over-pouring and unrecorded waste are far more common.
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